Exposure to Violence and Migration from Mexico to the United States

Longitudinal data from the Mexican Family Life Survey, in conjunction with aggregated vital statistics and census data, are used to examine how Mexican adults’ experiences of violent victimization and perceptions of personal safety, as well as the homicide rate in their local community, are associated with the likelihood that they migrate to the USA. Multilevel logistic regression analyses provide suggestive evidence that Mexicans who report being recent victims of violence and who perceive a recent deterioration in their personal safety are more likely than others to migrate to the USA. The association between perceived deterioration in personal safety and the probability of migrating to the USA is particularly strong among residents of urban areas. We find no evidence that a generalized fear of crime or exposure to a high municipality-level homicide rate is associated with USA-bound migration.