Simulation analysis of carbon peak path in China from a multi-scenario perspective: evidence from random forest and back propagation neural network models

China faces tough challenges in the process of low-carbon transformation. To determine whether China can achieve its new 2030 carbon peaking and carbon intensity reduction commitments, accurate prediction of China’s CO2 emissions is vital. In this paper, the random forest (RF) model was used to screen 26 carbon emission influencing factors, and seven indicators were selected as key variables for prediction. Subsequently, a three-layer back propagation (BP) neural network was constructed to forecast China’s CO2 emissions and intensity from 2020 to 2040 under the 13th Five-Year Plan, 14th Five-Year Plan, energy optimization, technology breakthrough, and dual control scenarios. The results showed that energy structure factors have the most significant impact on China’s CO2 emissions, followed by technology level, and economic development factors are no longer the main drivers. Under the 14th Five-Year Plan scenario, China can achieve its carbon peaking on time, reaching 10,434.082 Mt CO2 emissions in 2030. Although the new commitment to intensity reduction (over 65%) under this scenario cannot be achieved, the 14th Five-Year Plan can bring about 73.359 and 539.710 Mt of CO2 reduction in 2030 and 2040 respectively, compared to the 13th Five-Year Plan. Under the technology breakthrough and dual control scenarios, China will meet its new commitments ahead of schedule, with the dual control scenario being the optimal pathway for CO2 emissions to peak at 9860.08 Mt in 2025. It is necessary for Chinese policy makers to adjust their current strategic planning, such as accelerating the transformation of energy structure and increasing investment in R&D to achieve breakthroughs in green technologies.