Probability simulation: What meaning does it have for high school students?

This study investigated high school students’ reasoning and beliefs when confronted with contextual tasks involving the assessment and construction of two‐dimensional probability simulations.1 Nine students enrolled in an advanced algebra course, with little formal instruction in probability, engaged in clinical interviews focusing on the simulation tasks. All students showed evidence of being able to recognize or identify an appropriate probability generator to model a contextual problem. However, their thinking in probability simulation was constrained by their inability to deal with two‐dimensional trials. In assessing the validity of a given simulation, only one student could identify a flaw that resulted from the use of one‐dimensional trials rather than two‐dimensional trials. Additionally, when asked to construct a simulation, only two students were able to define an appropriate two‐dimensional trial and develop a valid solution. The study also revealed evidence of students’ beliefs about probability simulation—some of which could be helpful in informing instruction, others problematic. © 2002 Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.