Integrated reliability of travel time and capacity of urban road network under ice and snowfall conditions

In order to evaluate and integrate travel time reliability and capacity reliability of a road network subjected to ice and snowfall conditions, the conceptions of travel time reliability and capacity reliability were defined under special conditions. The link travel time model (ice and snowfall based-bureau public road, ISB-BPR) and the path choice decision model (elastic demand user equilibrium, EDUE) were proposed. The integrated reliability was defined and the model was set up. Monte Carlo simulation was used to calculate the model and a numerical example was provided to demonstrate the application of the model and efficiency of the solution algorithm. The results show that the intensity of ice and snowfall, the traffic demand and supply, and the requirements for level of service (LOS) have great influence on the reliability of a road network. For example, the reliability drops from 65% to 5% when the traffic demand increases by 30%. The comprehensive performance index may be used for network planning, design and maintenance.