Climate change and modelling of extreme temperatures in Switzerland

被引：0
作者：
Boriss Siliverstovs
Rainald Ötsch
Claudia Kemfert
Carlo C. Jaeger
Armin Haas
Hans Kremers
机构：
[1] ETH Zürich,
[2] KOF Swiss Economic Institute,undefined
[3] University of Potsdam,undefined
[4] DIW Berlin,undefined
[5] PIK,undefined
来源：
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment | 2010年 / 24卷
关键词：
Climate change; GEV; Bayesian modelling; Great Alpine heat wave;
D O I：
暂无
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
This study models maximum temperatures in Switzerland monitored in twelve locations using the generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution. The parameters of the GEV distribution are determined within a Bayesian framework. We find that the parameters of the underlying distribution underwent a substantial change in the beginning of the 1980s. This change is characterised by an increase both in the level and the variability. We assess the likelihood of the heat wave of the summer 2003 using the fitted GEV distribution by accounting for the presence of a structural break. The estimation results do suggest that the heat wave of 2003 is not that statistically improbable if an appropriate methodology is used for dealing with nonstationarity.
引用
收藏
页码：311 / 326
页数：15
相关论文
共 120 条
[1]  
Begert M(2005)Homogeneous temperature and precipitation series of Switzerland from 1864 to 2000 Int J Climatol 25 65-80
[2]  
Schlegel T(2004)The 2003 Heat Wave in Europe: a shape of things to come? An analysis based on Swiss climatological data and model simulations Geophys Res Lett 31 2022-2026
[3]  
Kirchhofer W(1992)Hierarchical Bayesian analysis of changepoint problems Appl Stat 41 389-405
[4]  
Beniston M(2003)Anticipating catastrophes through extreme value modelling Appl Stat 52 405-416
[5]  
Carlin BP(2007)Doubled length of western European summer heat waves since 1880 J Geophys Res (Atmospheres) 112 D15103-275
[6]  
Gelfand AE(2007)Summer heat waves over western Europe 1880–2003, their relationship to large-scale forcings and predictability Clim Dyn 29 251-216
[7]  
Smith AFM(2004)The 2003 European summer heatwaves and drought: synoptic diagnosis and impacts Weather 59 209-205
[8]  
Coles S(2005)Heat wave 2003 and mortality in Switzerland Swiss Med Wkly 135 200-823
[9]  
Pericchi L(2008)A method for computing the fraction of attributable risk related to climate damages Risk Anal 28 815-818
[10]  
Della-Marta PM(2007)Bayesian change-point analysis of heat spell occurrences in Montreal, Canada Int J Climatol 27 805-1453
12345678910