Set of Methods and Procedures for Analyzing and Forecasting the Development of the Eastern Regions of the Russian Federation

被引：0

作者：

Suspitsyn S.A. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk

来源：

Regional Research of Russia | 2021年 / 11卷 / Suppl 1期

关键词：

Asian Russia; economics of federalism; forecasts; regions; Siberia; strategic planning; triple helix models;

D O I：

10.1134/S2079970522010087

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

Abstract—: A scheme has been developed for assessing the impact of investments on the GRP growth in a region, the country, and the eastern zone of the Russian Federation, based on an analysis of the investment cycle investments–fixed assets–GRP–investments, the movement of the age strata of fixed assets, and their capital productivity. Triple helix models of interaction of the main factors of regional development (GRP, investment, and household income) in a multiregional system are proposed. The method of coordinating the conditions for the development of regions of different hierarchical levels is substantiated, in particular, the correct translation of the key macroeconomic parameters of the country’s economic development to regions. Its interpretation is proposed in terms of the triple helix model based on the center–periphery approach. Algorithms for joint use of the proposed methods in a set of simulated regional macromodels have been developed. The features of the socioeconomic situation of the eastern regions of the Russian Federation have been studied, experimental calculations of the regional development for the period up to 2035 have been performed and analyzed using a moderately optimistic scenario of the growth levels of key parameters of the economy (population size and income, growth in the share of investments in GRP, etc.). © 2021, Pleiades Publishing, Ltd.

引用

页码：S65 / S77

页数：12

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