The impact of environmental regulation on green investment efficiency of thermal power enterprises in China-based on a three-stage exogenous variable model

Due to the increased frequency of extreme weather events and the implementation of the China's dual-carbon target, thermal power companies have been under pressure to construct green infrastructure and to actively pursue low-carbon transformation in response to stricter environmental regulations. This research thus selects 30 listed thermal power enterprises in China as study objects and assesses their green investment efficiency in the low-carbon transition process using three-stage DEA evaluation model with environmental regulation as an exogenous variable. Based on this, a benchmark regression model is used to corroborate the relationship between environmental regulation and green investment. Simultaneously, we carry out analysis to compare the correlation between thermal power firms' green investment efficiency and their focus on green investments. The results show in terms of total efficiency that environmental regulation significantly improves the total efficiency of 80% of thermal power enterprises compared to the absence of this exogenous variable. With the addition of environmental regulation, firms' total efficiency declines gradually in general from 2018 to 2022, with the mean value of efficiency falling by 0.068. In terms of stage-specific efficiency, the efficiency of the green investment stage of the majority of firms is between 0.3 and 0.6, which is much lower than that of the operational stage and the market performance stage. In terms of sub-indicator efficiency, both green investment efficiency and social donation efficiency among thermal power enterprises show obvious polarization, with 30% of them having an efficiency of 1 and 30% less than 0.1. In terms of green investment focus, thermal power unit renovation has a more obvious role in boosting the green investment efficiency of thermal power enterprises than do wind power and photovoltaic projects. Therefore, both governmental departments and thermal power enterprises need to take active measures in order to achieve green transformation from the perspective of green investment efficiency. Through the segmentation of important projects of green investment, this paper provides a reasonable investment direction reference for the sustainable transformation of China's thermal power industry. It also provides a rich and novel theoretical basis for the Chinese government to further improve the relevant environmental protection laws and regulations of thermal power industry.