Evaluation of the EU proposed farm income stabilisation tool by skew normal linear mixed models

被引：11

作者：

Pigeon M. ^{[1
,2
]}

Henry de Frahan B. ^{[3
]}

Denuit M. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Science (ISBA), Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve

[2] Département de mathématiques, Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM), Montréal

[3] Earth and Life Institute (ELI), Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve

来源：

European Actuarial Journal | 2014年 / 4卷 / 2期

关键词：

Agricultural risk management; Common agricultural policy; Income stabilisation; Mixed effects models; Skew normal distribution;

D O I：

10.1007/s13385-014-0097-9

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

The European Commission has introduced new risk management tools in the rural development pillar 2 of the Common Agricultural Policy. One of them consists in providing co-financing support to mutual funds compensating farmers who experience a severe drop in their income. This paper analyses this income stabilisation tool for a region in Belgium by means of a skew normal linear mixed model. Relying on the farm accountancy data network, this analysis focuses on estimating the probability that such a fund would need to intervene and, in that case, the expected amount of each farm income compensation. The predictive distribution of future incomes given past revenues trajectory is derived and used for evaluation purposes. Particular attention is paid to additional requirements that could be imposed to the income stabilisation tool. © 2014, DAV / DGVFM.

引用

页码：383 / 409

页数：26

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