Bargaining in the shadow of the ballot box: causes and consequences of local voter initiatives

This paper provides one of the first empirical analyses of the local voter initiative. Using a unique and comprehensive dataset from California, it analyzes determinants of local initiatives and effects of these measures on municipal finances. Results indicate that initiatives occur more frequently in large and diverse jurisdictions with more recent movers, voters unaffiliated with a major political party, and public employees. Effects of city size are partly offset by district- or ward-level elections. Contrary to previous research on statewide initiatives, this study detects a positive and weakly significant relationship between local initiative use and own-source revenues per capita and no association between initiatives and the proportion of funds raised from fees. These divergent findings may reflect distinctive features of the local context, including greater latitude for political bargaining and the centrality of land use, as well as potential constraining effects of statewide initiatives in California.