Climate change and distribution of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) reservoir and vector species in central Iran

Aim of the study was to investigate the effects of climate change on the potential distribution of the zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) reservoir and vector to 2050s in central Iran. The bioclimatic variables (BVs) were obtained from the World Clim global climate data at a resolution of 30 s. MaxEnt software was used for the model predictions by all variables. According to the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP 4.5) Scenario, the area under the curve (AUC) for Rhombomys opimus and Phlebotomus papatasi was calculated as 0.877 and 0.921, respectively. Jackknife test indicated that BV2 (76.7%) and BV8 (38.1%) had the highest effect on the models for the reservoir and vector, respectively. In the RCP 8.5 scenario, AUC value for R. opimus and P. papatasi were obtained as 0.851 and 0.913, respectively. Jackknife test displayed that BV7 (73.5%) and BV8 (34.6%) were the most important variables on the model for the reservoir and vector, respectively. Future projections of models indicated that to the 2050s, the climatically suitable area for P. papatasi would expand mainly in the western area of the Yazd province, whereas would decrease in the eastern areas. Currently, the presence probability of this species in Bafq city was reported by about 70%. It is projected that in the 2050s, many areas of the province would have a dramatic decline in ZCL distribution. The results of this study will help the health authorities to forecast possible future ZCL transmission dynamics in different areas of Yazd province and to make appropriate decisions in the high-risk areas.