Business Cycle Correspondence in the European Union

This paper examines whether there exists a close correspondence in the business cycles of the EU economies. We focus on the timing and magnitude of business cycles and propose criteria for defining close correspondence. We suggest that any correspondence that does exist is confined to the EU core and that, contrary to some of the existing literature, there exists a clear core-periphery distinction. This makes us less optimistic about the prospects for EMU if it is not accompanied by institutional arrangements that take into account the differences between EU economies.