Dynamic scenario analysis of CO2 emission in China’s cement industry by 2100 under the context of cutting overcapacity

As the world’s largest cement producer and a carbon dioxide (CO2) emitter, China has announced to the international community its goal of achieving a carbon peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060. The issue of when and at what level CO2 emissions in the Chinese cement industry will peak and its subsequent evolution is receiving increasing attention, especially in light of the severe overcapacity in the Chinese cement industry. Based on the combination of cointegration analysis and scenario analysis, this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the CO2 emission levels and the emission structure trends in the Chinese cement industry up to 2100. The results show that China’s cement demand, production, and CO2 emissions from China’s cement industry peaked as early as 2014 then the decline began. Under the enhanced overcapacity cutting scenario, China’s cement industry will reduce CO2 emissions by 908 Mt in 2020–2100. The average annual CO2 abatement rate will reach 2.55%, and it will be compressed to 129 Mt by 2100. Under accelerated and fundamental overcapacity cutting scenarios, the average annual CO2 abatement rates will be 2.46% and 2.34%, respectively, and CO2 emissions will decrease to 140 Mt and 154 Mt, respectively. Furthermore, the industry CO2 emissions ratio from combustion and production processes under the fundamental, accelerated, and enhanced overcapacity cutting scenario will rise from 77.56 to 88.73% in 2020 and from 90.08 to 91.31% in 2100, respectively. The industry CO2 emissions from electricity use will decline from 22.44% in 2020 to 11.27% and from 9.92 to 8.69% in 2100, respectively. China needs to accelerate processes, improve production equipment, reduce energy sources such as coal and oil, and promote the cement industry to develop a circular economy and reduce emissions through critical technologies such as intelligent manufacturing and clean production.