Climate change impact assessment on flow regime by incorporating spatial correlation and scenario uncertainty

被引:0
|
作者
P. Vallam
X. S. Qin
机构
[1] Nanyang Technological University,School of Civil and Environmental Engineering
[2] Nanyang Technological University,Environmental Process Modelling Centre (EPMC), Nanyang Environment and Water Research Institute (NEWRI)
来源
Theoretical and Applied Climatology | 2017年 / 129卷
关键词
Return Period; Emission Scenario; Flood Peak; Weather Generator; Climate Forecast System Reanalysis;
D O I
暂无
中图分类号
学科分类号
摘要
Flooding risk is increasing in many parts of the world and may worsen under climate change conditions. The accuracy of predicting flooding risk relies on reasonable projection of meteorological data (especially rainfall) at the local scale. The current statistical downscaling approaches face the difficulty of projecting multi-site climate information for future conditions while conserving spatial information. This study presents a combined Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) stochastic weather generator and multi-site rainfall simulator RainSim (CLWRS) approach to investigate flow regimes under future conditions in the Kootenay Watershed, Canada. To understand the uncertainty effect stemming from different scenarios, the climate output is fed into a hydrologic model. The results showed different variation trends of annual peak flows (in 2080–2099) based on different climate change scenarios and demonstrated that the hydrological impact would be driven by the interaction between snowmelt and peak flows. The proposed CLWRS approach is useful where there is a need for projection of potential climate change scenarios.
引用
收藏
页码:607 / 622
页数:15
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