Analyzing climate-induced mortality of Taurus fir based on temporal forest management plans and climatic variations and droughts in the Central Mediterranean sub-region of Turkey

Fir species have been threatened by extreme weather and climate conditions in many parts of the Mediterranean Basin. However, there are almost no studies focused on the mortality of Taurus fir in the Eastern Mediterranean basin and Turkey. This study aims to quantify the mortality pattern of Taurus fir stands in Hadim Forest Enterprise from 1971 to 2016 and to assess this pattern considering the long-term trends and fluctuations in the observed climate data. To this end, spatiotemporal changes in forest cover were analyzed using historical stand type maps in GIS. Statistical and graphical time-series analyses were performed on observed climate data. As a result, rapid areal losses were detected in pure fir stands, even though the annual rate of forestation is 0.5% for the entire forest. More than half of the stands transformed into pure or mixed stands dominated by black pine. Both fir stands and the entire forest became much more fragmented and drought-induced deadwood remarkably increased in almost all fir stands. Regarding the climatic analyses, statistically significant increased trends (p < 0.01) were detected particularly in annual, summer, and autumn mean and average maximum and minimum air temperatures of the Hadim station; strong decreased trends were observed in all relative humidity series; and rapid warming in the surrounding region along Hadim was observed. In addition, series of the Aridity Index and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index revealed that more arid conditions and significant droughts have dominated the study district since the 1990s. This period has been characterized mostly by long-term agricultural and hydrological droughts. We conclude that selective tree mortality events in the Hadim’s forests are likely caused by adverse impacts of observed climate variations and long-term droughts in the sub-region.