Optimization approach for determining rainfall duration-intensity thresholds for debris flow forecasting

被引：0
作者：
Min-Hao Wu
J. P. Wang
I-Chia Chen
机构：
[1] National University of Kaohsiung,Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
[2] National Central University,Department of Civil Engineering
来源：
Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment | 2019年 / 78卷
关键词：
Debris flow; Rainfall intensity and duration; Missed alarm; False alarm; Probability;
D O I：
暂无
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
Debris flow is a natural hazard typically triggered by heavy rainfall. Previous research aimed at forecasting the occurrence of debris flows have led to the development of several rainfall duration-intensity thresholds for different areas using the second-percentile method that allows a missed-alarm probability of up to 2%, while disregarding the occurrence of false alarms. The current study aims to develop rainfall duration-intensity thresholds for debris flow forecasting taking into account both missed alarms and false alarms. Specifically, the new optimization approach seeks to determine the optimal duration-intensity threshold associated with the lowest missed- and false-alarm probabilities combined. In addition to the methodology, a case study is presented to show that the new optimization approach is feasible for determining rainfall duration-intensity thresholds in debris flow forecasting, and is more efficient than the method currently in use, which is associated with a higher probability of missed and false alarms combined.
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页码：2495 / 2501
页数：6
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