A Multi-Dimensional Analysis of Major Risks in Complex Projects

The paper develops a model – based on three detail levels and three risk classification dimensions – to analyze major risks in complex projects. The model makes it possible to identify and classify project major risks, the related main sources of uncertainty and the activities and stakeholders that are most exposed, that is to create a project risk map considering all organizational and operational coordinates. The assessment of risk allocation for each project element has a relevant impact from a managerial and contractual point of view, in particular it allows for the identification of project elements affected by possible risk overload and for an effective definition of a suitable set of mitigation actions. The model can be applied at different levels of detail, taking into account the different stages of the project life cycle. The model has been tested in a particularly risk-critical engineering and contracting project.