Establishing a rainfall dual-threshold for flash flood early warning considering rainfall patterns in mountainous catchment, China

Flash flood early warning is a very effective way to reduce casualties induced by rainstorm flash flood in mountainous area. The forecasting of flash flooding remains challenging because of the short response time and inaccurate warning threshold. So far, the flash flood disaster defenses often adopt the critical rainfall amounts inducing the peak discharge or water level to establish an early warning threshold in China. However, the runoff peak discharge depends on rainfall patterns including rainfall intensity and accumulation, result in the critical rainfall threshold has a significant uncertainty. To reduce this uncertainty, herein we present a dual-threshold method for flash flood early warning with consideration of rainfall patterns based on above two-rainfall metrics. Moreover, applying this new method in the flash flood disasters occurred in the Zhongdu river basin, Sichuan province of China to evaluate the early warning reliability. Firstly, five most likely rainfall patterns of this basin were determined according to the timing of rain peak in historical rainfall events, and then, we determined the critical rainfall thresholds under different rainfall patterns and soil moisture conditions. The result showed that the rainfall thresholds uncertainty caused by rainfall pattern is more pronounced than soil moisture. Next, using the cumulative rainfall depth and maximum rainfall intensity corresponding to disaster discharge in different flood processes to establish the dual-thresholds. We found the dual-threshold method comprehensively considers the impacts of soil moisture, rainfall temporal distribution and flood rising property, which can achieve early warning for the four protected objects along the Zhongdu River, with an average lead duration of 46.2 min. Compared with the other three single-threshold methods, the critical rainfall and the critical rainstorm curve methods frequently created false or missing warnings, making it difficult to achieve the effect of early warning. Although reliability of flood water level rising rate method is high, the lead time is relatively short and only lasts for a few minutes in some cases. As a result, the new proposed dual-threshold method, accounting for both the reliability and long lead time, can be a potential candidate for the flash flood disaster early warning.