Less than six generations to save the chacoan peccary

The Dry Chaco has one of the highest deforestation rates of the world. The chacoan peccary (Catagonus wagneri; ChP) is endemic to the forests of this region and faces a high risk of extinction. However, we lack sufficient information about this species to develop effective conservation actions. This is the first study to determine the relevance of primary and secondary forest as habitat for the species and to address opportunities for conservation. We used occupancy modelling to study habitat selection. Using additional information on the species and the region, we then estimated the time left before the ChP’s habitat outside of protected areas is completely lost, and the number of ChP generations likely to exist before this happens. Finally, we identified protected areas that can sustain viable populations, and estimated the number of individuals that can survive within them. We found that the ChP occupies both primary forests and secondary forests. Also, that if deforestation rates remain consistent, the habitat for the ChP outside protected areas will have disappeared before 2051 (< 6 peccary generations). Furthermore, we found that most protected areas are too small and isolated to sustain viable populations. Our results have great management implications. Well-managed forests may allow the conservation of the ChP. Initiatives focused on forest conservation should increase, alongside the restoration of degraded and deforested areas. We also recommend the creation of new protected areas and wildlife corridors, and working horizontally with local communities.