The air pollution effect of government economic growth expectations: evidence from China’s cities based on green technology

Based on the Government Work Report of 265 prefecture-level cities in China from 2004 to 2015, this article combines economic growth expectations data and keyword capture to explore the relationship between government economic growth expectations and air pollution. The main results are as follows: (1) The economic growth expectations of local governments, and the “increment” between prefecture-level and provincial governments’ growth expectations for economic growth have significantly increased air pollution. The certainty and completion degree of economic growth expectations have different effects on air pollution, and the impact of the expected rigid constraint and overfulfilled degree on air pollution are prominent. When the city’s real economic growth exceeds 1%, 2%, 3%, and 4% of growth expectations, respectively, SO2 emissions will increase by 10.577%, 10.671%, 11.825%, and 16.296%, and PM2.5 concentration will increase by 2.115%, 2.503%, 3.592%, and 4.421%. (2) The government’s annual economic growth expectations have different effects on different types of technological innovation. For every 1% increase in the government’s economic growth expectations, the green technology will be reduced by 0.956% which exacerbates regional air pollution. Furthermore, the green technology can explain 6.5% of air pollution induced by government economic growth expectations.