Scenario analysis of energy consumption and related emissions in the transportation industry—a case study of Shaanxi Province

被引:0
作者
Yao Zhang
Yaqian Kong
Jing Quan
Qian Wang
Yuxin Zhang
Yongjian Zhang
机构
[1] Shaanxi University of Science and Technology,College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering
来源
Environmental Science and Pollution Research | 2024年 / 31卷
关键词
Transportation industry; Energy consumption; CO; and air pollutants; LEAP model; Scenario analysis;
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暂无
中图分类号
学科分类号
摘要
In the context of pursuing carbon neutrality and balancing the use of fossil fuels with renewable energy, the transportation industry faces the challenge of accurately predicting energy demand, related emissions, and assessing the effectiveness of energy technologies and policies. This is crucial for formulating energy management plans and reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) and atmospheric pollutant emissions. Currently, research on energy consumption and emission forecasting primarily relies on energy consumption quantities and emission factors, which lack precision. This study employs the low emissions analysis platform (LEAP) model, utilizing a “bottom-up” modeling approach combined with scenario analysis to predict and analyze the energy demand and related emissions in the transportation industry. Compared to previous studies, the methodological framework proposed in this research offers higher precision and can explore energy-saving and emission-reduction pathways for different modes of transport, providing a valuable energy forecasting tool for transport policy formulation in other regions. The forecast results indicate that under the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, by 2049, the energy consumption and related emissions in Shaanxi Province’s transportation industry are expected to increase by 1.15 to 1.85 times compared to the baseline year. In the comprehensive (CP) scenario, the industry is projected to reach a carbon peak around 2033. The study also finds that energy consumption and emissions predominantly originate from private passenger vehicles, highway freight, and civil aviation passenger, which have the greatest potential for emission reduction under the transport structure optimized (TSO) scenario. Therefore, policymakers should consider regional development characteristics, combine different transportation modes, and specifically analyze the emission reduction potential of the transportation industry in various regions, formulating corresponding reduction policies accordingly.
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页码:26052 / 26075
页数:23
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