Production rate analysis of multiple-fractured horizontal wells in shale gas reservoirs by a trilinear flow model

Most multiple-fractured horizontal wells experience long-term linear flow due to the ultralow permeability of shale gas reservoirs. Considering the existence of natural fractures caused by compression and shear stresses during the process of tectonic movement or the expansion of high-pressure gas, a shale gas reservoir can be more appropriately described by dual-porosity medium. Based on the assumption of slab dual-porosity, this paper uses the trilinear flow model to simulate the transient production behavior of multiple-fractured horizontal wells in shale gas reservoirs, which takes the desorption of adsorbed gas, Knudsen diffusion and gas slippage flow in the shale matrix into consideration. Production decline curves are plotted with the Stehfest numerical inversion algorithm, and sensitivity analysis is done to identify the most influential reservoir and hydraulic fracture parameters. It was found that the density and permeability of the natural fracture network are the most important parameters affecting the production dynamics of multiple-fractured horizontal wells in shale gas reservoirs. The higher the density and permeability of the natural fractures are, the shorter the time is required to exploit the same amount of reserve, which means a faster investment payoff period. The analytical model presented in this paper can provide some insight into the reserve evaluation and production prediction for shale gas reservoirs.