Spatio-temporal dynamic of suitable areas for species conservation in West Africa: eight economically important wild palms under present and future climates

Sustainable conservation of tropical resources required understanding of their distribution for effective assessment and definition of conservation priorities. In tropical areas, wild palms are highly valued keystone resources with growing demand for both subsistence uses and commercial trade. Here we focused on eight such species (Borassus aethiopum Mart., Eremospathamacrocarpa (G.Mann & H.Wendl.) H.Wendl., Hyphaene thebaica Mart., Laccosperma opacum (G.Mann & H.Wendl.) Drude, Phoenix reclinata Jacq., Raphia hookeri G.Mann & H.Wendl., Raphia sudanica A. Chev., and Raphia vinifera P.Beauv.). This study tested (i) how those palms distributions may be affected under future climate scenarios, and (ii) if species are effectively conserved currently and under future forecasts for their native distributional areas. Finally, we defined spatial priorities for the species’ conservation. Available bioclimatic and soil data layers were used for the modelling with maximum entropy approaches, and resulting maps were overlaid on the existing protected areas network. Results showed that much of the distribution of the species will remain largely stable, albeit with some expansion and retraction in some species; relationships with protected areas networks suggest that protected portions of species distributions will also remain stable. The areas identified as highest conservation priority differ between models even though the highest-priority areas holding most palm species are located along the coast (from Guinea to Nigeria). Further development of these analyses could aid in forming a more complete picture of the distributions and populations of the species, which in turn could aid in developing effective conservation strategies for this botanically important family.