Potential Spatio-temporal Distribution of Invasive Charru Mussel, Mytella strigata (Hanley, 1843) Under Different Climate Scenarios

Invasive alien species are a global menace to biodiversity and pose potential loss ecologically, socially, and economically. In this study, the species distribution model, Maximum Entropy or MaxEnt model was used to estimate the potential global distribution of the invasive mussel Mytella strigata under present and future climatic conditions. Though the species is native to Latin America, its presence has been reported in several other parts of the globe, mainly due to extensive sea trade networks and the unregulated discharge of ballast water. It is posing a serious threat to indigenous species, and critical ecosystems, and the consequences can be detrimental for small-scale fisheries across the globe. The study aims to understand the habitat suitability of this species in the current situation and in the future under different climate scenarios. The study used 71 occurrence records from Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF),database and 7 environmental parameters to predict its habitat suitability. According to the model predictions, the present distribution of M. strigata is expected to extend profusely to several non-native regions around the globe. While the future projections show that the area of suitability may shrink in future climate scenario Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and the species will shift its distribution towards higher latitudes. This may primarily be due to human intervention, resulting in an increasing global average annual temperature. This study can help to investigate the high-risk areas under invasion by M. strigata which will act as an early warning system to control, prevent and regulate the further expansion of this species through public awareness and administrative action.