A model simulating the processes in the responses of glaciers and runoff to climatic change - a case study of Glacier No. 1 in the Urumqi River, China

Presents a dynamic glacier model that simulates the processes in response of Glacier No. 1 in headwaters of the Urumqi River to various future climatic scenarios. The results indicate that the Glacier No. 1 will continue retreating if current climatic conditions prevail, until it reaches an equilibrium state of 1600 m in length after 700 to 800 yr. If air temperatures rise 1°C, the glacier would become a hanging glacier with a length of 300 m after 700 to 800 yr. Due to its retreat, the cooling function of the glacier would be weakened, resulting in the air temperature in glaciated areas higher than that in ice-free areas. The results also indicate that the current glacier melt runoff is higher in comparison with the runoff in the equilibrium state under the current climatic condition. If the air temperature continues increasing, however, the runoff would still increase to a new peak and then decrease rapidly.