Prediction, accommodation and the periodic table: a reappraisal

The history of the diffusion and confirmation of Mendeleev’s periodic table of elements has proven to be a challenging testbed for contemporary philosophical debates on the role of predictions in science. More than ten years of fruitful literature came after Scerri and Worrall (Stud Hist Phil Sci 32(3):407–452, 2001) versus Maher (Proc Bienn Meet Philos Sci Assoc 1:273–285, 1988) and Lipton (Inference to the best explanation, 2004 edition, Routledge, London, 1991); nevertheless, such a long-lasting debate left quite a few open questions. The aim of this contribution is to go through the various cases that emerged during the debate, in an effort to explain them coherently in a weak predictivist perspective. Maher’s early account—according to which the astounding success of the major predictions alone was enough to explain the confirmation of the periodic table—can now be replaced by a more balanced and thorough picture, where both predictions and accommodations do weight.