Time trend estimation with breaks in temperature time series

被引：0
作者：
L. A. Gil-Alana
机构：
[1] University of Navarra,Faculty of Economics
来源：
Climatic Change | 2008年 / 89卷
关键词：
Unit Root; Time Trend; Fractional Integration; Temperature Time Series; Linear Time Trend;
D O I：
暂无
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
This paper deals with the modelling of the global and northern and southern hemispheric anomaly temperature time series using a novel technique based on segmented trends and fractional integration. We use a procedure that permits us to estimate linear time trends and orders of integration at various subsamples, where the periods for the changing trends are endogenously determined by the model. Moreover, we use a non-parametric approach (Bloomfield P, Biometrika, 60:217–226, 1973) for modelling the I(0) deviation term. The results show that the three series (global, northern and southern temperatures) can be well described in terms of fractional integration with the orders of integration around 0.5 in the three cases. The coefficients associated to the time trends are statistically significant in all subsamples for the three series, especially during the final part of the sample, giving then some support to the global warming theories.
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页码：325 / 337
页数：12
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