Promoting Climate Resilient Sustainable Agriculture Through Participatory System Dynamics with Crop-Water-Income Dynamics

Groundwater availability in upland villages in southern India has reduced drastically during the last two decades. Most farmers believe this is entirely due to the decrease in rainfall. The current work presents participatory system dynamics modeling of crop-water-income dynamics and root cause analysis in one such village to quantify the long-term effects of groundwater withdrawal and other agricultural practices. Groundwater overexploitation was identified as the most significant cause of the crisis. Causal loop diagrams, stocks and flows diagrams, and scenario analysis were developed through focused group discussions and individual meetings with stakeholders. Multiple 'what-if' scenarios suggested by stakeholders were simulated and analyzed. Notably, less water-intensive, chemical-free farming emerged as an ecologically and economically sustainable strategy. A post-project survey indicated that 90% of stakeholders felt that the framework enhanced their understanding of the problem, encouraged unbiased exploration of new ideas, and raised their commitment to subsequent action plans. It is an easily replicable framework for adoption by farmers and policymakers to address the groundwater crisis and promote sustainable farming practices.