Revisiting the relationship between business conditions, climate policy uncertainty, and environmental pollution: evidence from the USA

This paper aims to revisit the interdependency between business conditions, climate policy change, and the environmental pollution of the USA. Interestingly, our paper represents a completion to the existing literature on three levels at least. First, we propose to analyze this issue during normal periods and periods of turmoil, particularly the COVID-19 outbreak. To do so, contrary to previous studies that used economic growth, we employ the ADS index as a real-time business conditions measurement. Second, we employ a frequency approach, based on the continuous wavelet transform, allowing us to understand the nature of the relationship. Understanding whether the relationship holds in the short- or long-term is useful for policymakers in monitoring public policies to achieve CO2 emission reduction as well as to investors interested in high value-added projects. Our analysis shows that, during the last two decades, the relationship between business conditions as well as climate uncertainty index and CO2 emissions is observed during the long- and short-term, and driven through economic conditions. However, during the crisis periods, the effect is detected across various scales and the relationship is bi-directional. Our results have several practical implications for the US policymakers to consider when setting policies for fighting pollution emissions and environmental protection.