Heavy metals pollution of soil in central plains urban agglomeration (CPUA), China: human health risk assessment based on Monte Carlo simulation

The present study conducted the concentration evaluation, pollution assessment, source analysis, and risk assessment of heavy metals in the soil of the CPUA, China, to contribute to the smooth construction of urban agglomeration. Elevated levels of mean concentrations of cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), and copper (Cu) in the soils were shown compared to background values. Cu and zinc (Zn) and also lead (Pb) and Cd exhibited spatial similarity. Manganese (Mn) and Cr exhibited point source characteristics such as the concentrations at a point much higher than the surrounding area. The potential ecological risk in the northern region belonged to the moderate risk level category. Cd contributed over 90% to the potential ecological risk. The health risk among children was higher than that among adults. The major exposure pathways were different for adults and children. Exposure, as shown using Hazard Index (HI), to adults was mainly through the skin contact route, while to children was through both the skin contact and ingestion route. The primary CR (carcinogenic risk) to adults was through the inhalation route, while that to children was through the ingestion route. In both children and adults, Cr was the main contributor to HI and CR. According to the Monte Carlo simulation results, the cumulative probability of exceeding the critical value of HI for children was approximately 2.8–3.0 times that for adults. According to the sensitivity analysis results, non-carcinogenic risk prevention should begin mainly by reducing exposure duration and skin contact. The cancer risk may be reduced primarily by decreasing the exposure duration and controlling ingestion. The PMF (Positive Matrix Factorization) source analysis revealed that Pb mainly came from transportation sources. In addition, Cu, Pb, and Mn were derived mainly from agricultural sources. Cr was derived mostly from a natural source, and Cd originated mainly from an industrial source.