A Bayesian Bioeconometric Model of Invasive Species Control: The Case of the Hemlock Woolly Adelgid

被引:0
作者
Christopher C. Moore
Daniel J. Phaneuf
Walter N. Thurman
机构
[1] National Center for Environmental Economics,Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics
[2] US Environmental Protection Agency,undefined
[3] North Carolina State University,undefined
来源
Environmental and Resource Economics | 2011年 / 50卷
关键词
Bioeconometrics; Ecosystem services; Gibbs sampling; Hemlock woolly adelgid; Invasive species; Nonmarket valuation;
D O I
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中图分类号
学科分类号
摘要
In this article we evaluate a US Forest Service plan to mitigate damages from an invasive insect on public, forested land. We develop a dynamic model of infestation and control to explicitly account for biological interactions, baseline conditions, and uncertainty, thus creating a more complete picture of policy impacts than a static cost benefit analysis could provide. We combine the results of the dynamic model with an empirical study of nonmarket forest benefits to create a bioeconomic model of ecosystem management. Estimating the empirical model in a Bayesian framework allows us to treat the economic coefficients of the dynamic model as random variables. We specify distributions for the biological parameters and examine the effects of both biological and economic uncertainty on the predictive distribution of net benefits. We find that the net benefits of the program are positive, and that uncertainty in the biological model contributes substantially more to the variance of our estimate than does uncertainty over the valuation of the resource.
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页码:1 / 26
页数:25
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