Modeling of stage–discharge relationship for Gharraf River, southern Iraq using backpropagation artificial neural networks, M5 decision trees, and Takagi–Sugeno inference system technique: a comparative study

The potential of using three different data-driven techniques namely, multilayer perceptron with backpropagation artificial neural network (MLP), M5 decision tree model, and Takagi–Sugeno (TS) inference system for mimic stage–discharge relationship at Gharraf River system, southern Iraq has been investigated and discussed in this study. The study used the available stage and discharge data for predicting discharge using different combinations of stage, antecedent stages, and antecedent discharge values. The models’ results were compared using root mean squared error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R2) error statistics. The results of the comparison in testing stage reveal that M5 and Takagi–Sugeno techniques have certain advantages for setting up stage–discharge than multilayer perceptron artificial neural network. Although the performance of TS inference system was very close to that for M5 model in terms of R2, the M5 method has the lowest RMSE (8.10 m3/s). The study implies that both M5 and TS inference systems are promising tool for identifying stage–discharge relationship in the study area. © 2014, The Author(s).