The effects of climate change scenarios on Tilia ssp. in Turkey

Global climate change will cause significant changes in climate parameters, especially temperature increases and changes in precipitation regimes worldwide. Since the life of living things is directly related to climate parameters, this process will inevitably affect all living things. The plants will be the most affected living things from this process because they do not have an effective movement and migration mechanism. Therefore, global climate change will cause significant species and population losses in plants. To minimize the potential loss of species and populations, it is necessary to predetermine the potential changes in species’ distribution areas and take necessary actions. Therefore, this study was aimed to determine the distribution areas of three Tilia species (Tilia tomentosa, Tilia cordata, and Tilia platyphyllos), which have economic, ecologic, and social value and show the local distribution in Turkey and to determine how they will be affected by global climate change. Within this scope, nineteen bioclimatic variables, Emberger climate classification, aspect, and topographic altitude variable were used in the modeling process. By modeling the scenarios SSP 245 and SSP 585, the projections were made for 2040, 2060, 2080, and 2100 regarding the areas suitable for the growth of these species and how these areas will change compared to their current situation. The results suggest that the distribution areas of all three Tilia species will change due to climate change, and the area of loss will be 43.5 km2 (4%) for T. tomentosa, 9953.6 km2 (15%) for T. platyphyllos, and 448.0 km2 (19%) for T. cordata. Moreover, a more important point here is that increases and decreases will be observed in their distribution areas, and these changes will occur in a short process and at significant levels. In this case, the migration mechanism that these species will require must be provided by humans.