Who gets Horizon 2020 research grants? Propensity to apply and probability to succeed in a two-step analysis

This paper presents a timely analysis of participation in the 8th European Framework Programme for Research and Innovation (EU FP) Horizon 2020. Our dataset comprises the entire population of research organizations in Norway, enabling us to distinguish between non-applicants, non-successful applicants, and successful participants. We find it important to distinguish two stages of the participation process: the self-selection stage in which organizations decide whether they wish to apply for EU funding, and the second stage in which the European Commission selects the best applications for funding. Our econometric results indicate that the propensity to apply is enhanced by prior participation in EU FPs and the existence of complementary national funding schemes; further, that the probability of succeeding is strengthened by prior participation as well as the scientific reputation of the applicant organization.