Epidemiology of Newcastle disease in chickens of Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis

The objective of this systematic review was to estimate the overall pooled prevalence of Newcastle disease in chickens in Ethiopia and identify the sources of heterogeneity among and within studies. The seroprevalence of Newcastle disease was estimated using a single-group meta-analysis. Attempts were also made to identify study-level variables that could explain the heterogeneity in the apparent seroprevalence of the Newcastle disease. The findings were based on 16 published articles and 33 district-level reports and were limited to studies performed during 2005–2017. Due to the presence of heterogeneity, pooled analysis from different districts was conducted using random-effects meta-analysis. The single-group summary of Newcastle disease seroprevalence in chickens was estimated to be 21.47% (19.54–23.4%) with a 95% confidence interval. Our results indicated high inter-study variability (Cochran’s Q statistic = 196.2, true variance (τ2) = 0.36, inverse variance index (I2) = 90.0%, p < 0.001). Of all variables analysed, diagnostic techniques and regions were the most significant predictors (p ˂ 0.05) of heterogeneity. According to the diagnostic technique-based meta-analysis of random pooled prevalence, the haemagglutination inhibition test had the highest prevalence, followed by the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. In conclusion, the high-pooled prevalence estimates of the disease, combined with the scarcity of published data for the entire country of Ethiopia, indicate a significant data gap on the distribution of Newcastle disease in the country. While the high pooled prevalence tells the need for intervention to control the disease, there is also a need to assess the disease prevalence in all other parts of the country.