A Probabilistic Methodology to Assess the Risk of Groundwater Quality Degradation

An approach to assess the risk of groundwater quality degradation with regard to fixed standards, based on DisjunctiveKriging (DK) is presented. The DK allows one to evaluate the Conditional Probability (CP) of overriding a given threshold of concentration of a pollutant at a given time, and at a generic point in a consideredgroundwater system. The result of such investigation over the considered area can be plotted in form of maps of spatial risk. By repeating this analysis at different times, severalspatial riskmaps will be produced, one for each consideredtime. By means of non-parametric statistics, the temporal trendof the CPs can be evaluated at every point of the considered area. The trend index, assessed by means of a sort of classification of the trend values obtained as described above,can be superimposed on the most recent values of the spatialrisk (i.e.: the most recent values of probability). Consequentlya classification of the risk of groundwater quality degradationresults with which to weigh both the spatial distribution and thetemporal behaviour of the probability to exceed a given standardthreshold. The methodology has been applied to values of nitrateconcentration sampled in the monitoring well network of theModena plain, northern Italy. This area is characterised by intensive agricultural exploitation and hog breeding along withindustrial and civil developments. The influence of agriculture on groundwater results in a high nitrate pollution that limitsits use for potable purposes.