Logistic regression modelling of storm-induced shallow landsliding in time and space on natural terrain of Lantau Island, Hong Kong

被引：0

作者：

Dai F.C. ^{[1
,2
]}

Lee C.F. ^{[1
]}

Tham L.G. ^{[1
]}

Ng K.C. ^{[3
]}

Shum W.L. ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road

[2] Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100029 Beijing

[3] Geotechnical Engineering Office, Civil Engineering Department, Hong Kong

来源：

Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment | 2004年 / 63卷 / 4期

关键词：

Geographic information system (GIS); Landslides; Logistic regression; Probability; Rainfall;

D O I：

10.1007/s10064-004-0245-6

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

This study is aimed at developing a method for modelling the probability of landsliding using a geographical information system (GIS), rainstorm events and associated landslide distributions, with an attempt to assess where landslides are likely to occur when certain rainstorm events happen. This research focuses on the natural terrain of Lantau Island, Hong Kong. In order to derive a logistic regression model for statistical prediction of the probability of landsliding, topographic attributes derived from digital elevation model (DEM) data are combined with a variety of other digital datasets including 24 h rainfall, lithology and vegetation cover in a GIS. The model was then applied to given rainstorm events and rainfalls of a variety of periods of return time in order to predict the probability of landsliding on natural slopes in space and time. The modelling techniques described here can be used to develop effective mitigation strategies. © Springer-Verlag 2004.

引用

页码：315 / 327

页数：12

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