Possible future trade-offs between agriculture, energy production, and biodiversity conservation in North Dakota

被引:0
作者
Michael J. Hill
Rhonda Olson
机构
[1] University of North Dakota,Department of Earth System Science and Policy
[2] University of North Dakota,Department of Geography
来源
Regional Environmental Change | 2013年 / 13卷
关键词
Multi-criteria; Trade-off; Land use; Ecosystem function; Climate change;
D O I
暂无
中图分类号
学科分类号
摘要
In this study, we describe a spatially explicit scenario analysis of global change effects on the potential future trade-offs and conflicts between agriculture, energy generation, and grassland and wetland conservation in North Dakota (ND), USA. Integrated scenarios combining global policy, oil security, and climate change were applied to North Dakota using a spatial multi-criteria analysis shell. Spatial data describing climate changes and grassland, wetland, cropland, and energy distributions were used to characterize the geographical environment. The final multi-criteria framework examined the potential trade-offs between climate change, agricultural expansion, and energy generation resulting from global change scenarios on one hand, and the current footprint of wetlands and grasslands for six regions of ND that capture the major climate gradients and differences in land use. The results suggest that the tension between regional climate changes that may limit agricultural expansion, and global changes in food and energy security and commodity prices that favor agricultural expansion, may focus a zone of potential pressure on grasslands and wetland conversion in central ND and the Prairie Pothole Region. The balance between conservation programs, commodity prices, and land parcel productivity may determine grassland conversion, while wetland outcomes may almost totally depend upon regional climate change.
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页码:311 / 328
页数:17
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