Dynamics of the water environment in a water quantity-quality-soil model of China’s Yellow River basin: imbalance and driving factors

Dynamic assessment of the water environment reflects variations in water resources in a basin under the combined influence of nature and humans and is a prerequisite for rational water management. This study provides an integrated assessment of the water environment in a water quantity-quality-soil model. Using the long-term monthly data from hydrological monitoring stations, the water environment of the Yellow River basin is assessed from the year 2006 to 2019. The kernel density estimation and the Dagum Gini coefficient are used to analyze the spatial and temporal imbalances of the water environment. Geographic detectors are used to extract external driving factors of the unbalanced evolution. The study results reveal that (1) the water environment in the basin shows a fluctuating downward trend, which mainly depends on the organic pollution control indicators, with a contribution of 22.85%. Scores of the water environment in the midstream are lower than those in the upstream and downstream due to the heavy pollutant discharges. (2) The spatial imbalance shows a fluctuating downward trend. Inter-regional variation is the primary source of regional variation in the water environment, with an average contribution of 56.02%. (3) The temporal imbalance of the water environment is on the rise, with a degree of multipolarity. The significant left trailing feature of the kernel density curve suggests that there are areas within the basin where the water environment is extremely poor. (4) For the overall basin and upstream, economic development and technological innovation are the main external driving factors influencing the spatial and temporal imbalances of the water environment. For the midstream and downstream, population density and environmental regulations are the main drivers. The interaction of any two factors has a greater impact than the single one.