Does green finance promote agricultural green total factor productivity? Considering green credit, green investment, green securities, and carbon finance in China

The Chinese government has proposed a “double carbon” target as a response to climate change and has been incorporated in the vision 2035. Agriculture’s green development is intrinsically related to financial support, but conventional financial mechanisms fall short in their efforts to foster economic growth and curb environmental degradation. The current research examines the theoretical effects of green finance on agricultural green total factor productivity in the context of “double carbon.” The mediating effect and moderating effect models are used to empirically examine this mechanism based on the panel data (2015–2019) of 30 provinces in China. The estimated results suggest that green finance development can significantly increase agricultural green total factor productivity, with an inverted U effect and an apparent regional heterogeneity. The eastern region has a stronger promotional effect than the central and western regions. The advanced industrial structure plays a mediating effect on the impact of green finance on agricultural green total factor productivity. Rural human capital can effectively mediate the mediating effect of advanced industrial structure on the impact of green finance on agricultural green total factor productivity. The aforementioned results offer fresh perspectives and empirical evidence for China’s green finance policy improvement, harmonizing regional green finance development, promotion of industrial structure improvement, and rural human capital optimization.