Evaluating Land Use Dynamics and Forest Cover Change in Nepal’s Bara District (1973–2003)

This research uses Landsat Multi-Spectral Scanner of 1973, Thematic Mapper of 1989, Advance Earth Observing Satellite of 1996, and Enhanced Thematic Mapper of 2003 imagery to examine the effects of socioeconomic and demographic factors on land use and forest cover dynamics in the Bara district of the Central Tarai Region of Nepal for 1973–2003. These satellite images are used to generate three transition matrices for 1973–1989, 1989–1996, and 1996–2003; and the outcomes of the final transition matrix are compared with the land use and cover patterns seen on the IKONOS (1 × 1 m) 2003 images. This paper contributes to our understanding of how land use and cover dynamics correspond to national-level socioeconomic developments, demographic changes, and environmental awareness as envisioned by Ecological Modernization Theory. It also demonstrates how such a set of transition matrices generated from different resolution images helps assess these explanatory relationships at different temporal and spatial scales.