Predictability of winter rainfall in South China as demonstrated by the coupled models of ENSEMBLES

被引：0
作者：
Se-Hwan Yang
Chaofan Li
Riyu Lu
机构：
[1] Chinese Academy of Sciences,State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics
[2] University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics
[3] Chinese Academy of Sciences,undefined
来源：
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences | 2014年 / 31卷
关键词：
predictability; South China; winter rainfall; ENSO; ENSEMBLES;
D O I：
暂无
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
Winter rainfall over South China shows strong interannual variability, which accounts for about half of the total winter rainfall over South China. This study investigated the predictability of winter (December-January-February; DJF) rainfall over South China using the retrospective forecasts of five state-of-the-art coupled models included in the ENSEMBLES project for the period 1961–2006. It was found that the ENSEMBLES models predicted the interannual variation of rainfall over South China well, with the correlation coefficient between the observed/station-averaged rainfall and predicted/areaaveraged rainfall being 0.46. In particular, above-normal South China rainfall was better predicted, and the correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed anomalies was 0.64 for these wetter winters. In addition, the models captured well the main features of SST and atmospheric circulation anomalies related to South China rainfall variation in the observation. It was further found that South China rainfall, when predicted according to predicted DJF Niño3.4 index and the ENSO-South China rainfall relationship, shows a prediction skill almost as high as that directly predicted, indicating that ENSO is the source for the predictability of South China rainfall.
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页码：779 / 786
页数：7
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