Thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to future changes in summer precipitation over Northeast Asia and Korea: a multi-RCM study

被引:0
作者
Donghyun Lee
Seung-Ki Min
Jonghun Jin
Ji-Woo Lee
Dong-Hyun Cha
Myoung-Seok Suh
Joong-Bae Ahn
Song-You Hong
Hyun-Suk Kang
Minsu Joh
机构
[1] Pohang University of Science and Technology,Division of Environmental Science and Engineering
[2] Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory,undefined
[3] Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology,undefined
[4] Kongju National University,undefined
[5] Pusan National University,undefined
[6] Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems,undefined
[7] National Institute of Meteorological Sciences,undefined
[8] Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information,undefined
来源
Climate Dynamics | 2017年 / 49卷
关键词
Regional climate models; Precipitation; Northeast Asia; Korea; RCP scenarios; Moisture flux convergence;
D O I
暂无
中图分类号
学科分类号
摘要
This study examines future changes in precipitation over Northeast Asia and Korea using five regional climate model (RCM) simulations driven by single global climate model (GCM) under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios. Focusing on summer season (June–July–August) when heavy rains dominate in this region, future changes in precipitation and associated variables including temperature, moisture, and winds are analyzed by comparing future conditions (2071–2100) with a present climate (1981–2005). Physical mechanisms are examined by analyzing moisture flux convergence at 850 hPa level, which is found to have a close relationship to precipitation and by assessing contribution of thermodynamic effect (TH, moisture increase due to warming) and dynamic effect (DY, atmospheric circulation change) to changes in the moisture flux convergence. Overall background warming and moistening are projected over the Northeast Asia with a good inter-RCM agreement, indicating dominant influence of the driving GCM. Also, RCMs consistently project increases in the frequency of heavy rains and the intensification of extreme precipitation over South Korea. Analysis of moisture flux convergence reveals competing impacts between TH and DY. The TH effect contributes to the overall increases in mean precipitation over Northeast Asia and in extreme precipitation over South Korea, irrespective of models and scenarios. However, DY effect is found to induce local-scale precipitation decreases over the central part of the Korean Peninsula with large inter-RCM and inter-scenario differences. Composite analysis of daily anomaly synoptic patterns indicates that extreme precipitation events are mainly associated with the southwest to northeast evolution of large-scale low-pressure system in both present and future climates.
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页码:4121 / 4139
页数:18
相关论文
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