Extinction risk from climate change

被引：0

作者：

Chris D. Thomas

Alison Cameron

Rhys E. Green

Michel Bakkenes

Linda J. Beaumont

Yvonne C. Collingham

Barend F. N. Erasmus

Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira

Alan Grainger

Lee Hannah

Lesley Hughes

Brian Huntley

Albert S. van Jaarsveld

Guy F. Midgley

Lera Miles

Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta

A. Townsend Peterson

Oliver L. Phillips

Stephen E. Williams

机构：

[1] University of Leeds,Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation, School of Biology

[2] Royal Society for the Protection of Birds,Conservation Biology Group, Department of Zoology

[3] University of Cambridge,Department of Biological Sciences

[4] National Institute of Public Health and Environment,Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences

[5] Macquarie University,School of Geography

[6] University of Durham,Center for Applied Biodiversity Science

[7] School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences,Department of Zoology

[8] University of the Witwatersrand,Climate Change Research Group, Kirstenbosch Research Centre

[9] Centro de Referência em Informação Ambiental,Unidad Occidente, Instituto de Biología

[10] University of Leeds,Natural History Museum and Biodiversity Research Center

[11] Conservation International,Cooperative Research Centre for Tropical Rainforest Ecology

[12] University of Stellenbosch,undefined

[13] National Botanical Institute,undefined

[14] Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México,undefined

[15] University of Kansas,undefined

[16] School of Tropical Biology,undefined

[17] James Cook University,undefined

[18] UNEP World Conservation Monitoring Centre,undefined

来源：

Nature | 2004年 / 427卷

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摘要：

Climate change over the past ∼30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species1,2 and has been implicated in one species-level extinction3. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15–37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be ‘committed to extinction’. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (∼18%) than mid-range (∼24%) and maximum-change (∼35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.

引用

页码：145 / 148

页数：3

共 61 条

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