Beyond Mean and Variance: Economic Risk Versus Perceived Risk of Farming, Foraging, and Fishing Activities in Southwestern Madagascar

Economic analyses of risk typically employ mean and variance calculations such as the coefficient of variation (CV) and z-score model. In this study we examine to what degree these simple measures approximate people’s perceptions of the risk associated with different farming, foraging, and fishing subsistence activities in southwestern Madagascar. CV calculated using production data for 15 activities (ranked) explains about 18 % of participants’ risk ratings from 24 focus groups. CV corresponds better to the ratings of men (37 %) and farmers (40 %), but does not predict the ratings by women, foragers, or Vezo fishermen, suggesting that economic measures of risk have a male and agrarian bias. Narrative responses suggest that risk is qualitatively different for foragers and fishermen, who face hazard (danger) and the cosmological dread of dying far from home. We conclude by predicting the ethnographic and ecological contexts when researchers should go beyond mean and variance when estimating risk.