A multi-parametric prognostic model based on clinicopathologic features: vessels encapsulating tumor clusters and hepatic plates predict overall survival in hepatocellular carcinoma patients

Background Vessels encapsulating tumor clusters (VETC) is a newly described vascular pattern that is distinct from microvascular invasion (MVI) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Despite its importance, the current pathological diagnosis report does not include information on VETC and hepatic plates (HP). We aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of integrating VETC and HP (VETC-HP model) in the assessment of HCC. Methods A total of 1255 HCC patients who underwent radical surgery were classified into training (879 patients) and validation (376 patients) cohorts. Additionally, 37 patients treated with lenvatinib were studied, included 31 patients in high-risk group and 6 patients in low-risk group. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis was used to establish a prognostic model for the training set. Harrell's concordance index (C-index), time-dependent receiver operating characteristics curve (tdROC), and decision curve analysis were utilized to evaluate our model's performance by comparing it to traditional tumor node metastasis (TNM) staging for individualized prognosis. Results A prognostic model, VETC-HP model, based on risk scores for overall survival (OS) was established. The VETC-HP model demonstrated robust performance, with area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.832 and 0.780 for predicting 3- and 5-year OS in the training cohort, and 0.805 and 0.750 in the validation cohort, respectively. The model showed superior prediction accuracy and discrimination power compared to TNM staging, with C-index values of 0.753 and 0.672 for OS and disease-free survival (DFS) in the training cohort, and 0.728 and 0.615 in the validation cohort, respectively, compared to 0.626 and 0.573 for TNM staging in the training cohort, and 0.629 and 0.511 in the validation cohort. Thus, VETC-HP model had higher C-index than TNM stage system(p < 0.01).Furthermore, in the high-risk group, lenvatinib alone appeared to offer less clinical benefit but better disease-free survival time. Conclusions The VETC-HP model enhances DFS and OS prediction in HCC compared to traditional TNM staging systems. This model enables personalized temporal survival estimation, potentially improving clinical decision-making in surveillance management and treatment strategies.