Anthropogenic and natural causes of climate change

被引：0
作者：
David I. Stern
Robert K. Kaufmann
机构：
[1] Australian National University,Crawford School of Public Policy
[2] Boston University,Department of Earth and Environment
来源：
Climatic Change | 2014年 / 122卷
关键词：
Black Carbon; Solar Irradiance; Granger Causality; Granger Causality Test; Ocean Heat Content;
D O I：
暂无
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
We test for causality between radiative forcing and temperature using multivariate time series models and Granger causality tests that are robust to the non-stationary (trending) nature of global climate data. We find that both natural and anthropogenic forcings cause temperature change and also that temperature causes greenhouse gas concentration changes. Although the effects of greenhouse gases and volcanic forcing are robust across model specifications, we cannot detect any effect of black carbon on temperature, the effect of changes in solar irradiance is weak, and the effect of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols may be only around half that usually attributed to them.
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页码：257 / 269
页数：12
相关论文
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