On the long-term periodicity of seismic activation in the Caucasus-East Anatolian region

Analysis of seismological data from earthquake catalogs reveals the periodicity of seismic activations within the Caucasian subregion of the Caucasian-Eastern Anatolian region for the historical period (from the last centuries BC). Summarized results of paleoseismological studies in the Greater Caucasus grant an opportunity to verify the correctness of the conclusions. Since the 3rd century BC up to four long-term seismic activations, each around 200–600 years in duration, have occurred in the studied area. For the Caucasian subregion, the analyzed material allows us to conclude that the current (fifth) activation observed since ca 1900 may reach its maximum in ca 2100 (±∼75).