Infection-induced increases to population size during cycles in a discrete-time epidemic model

被引:1
作者
Strube, Laura F. [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Elgart, Shoshana [4 ]
Childs, Lauren M. [1 ]
机构
[1] Virginia Tech, Dept Math, 225 Stanger St, Blacksburg, VA 24061 USA
[2] Univ Pittsburgh, Med Sch, Dept Immunol, 5051 Ctr Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA
[3] Univ Pittsburgh, Med Sch, Dept Computat & Syst Biol, 800 Murdoch 1 Bldg,3420 Forbes Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA
[4] Laurel Springs Sch, 302 El Paseo Rd, Ojai, CA 93023 USA
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
Discrete-time epidemic model; Bifurcation; Hydra effect; Overcompensatory growth; 92-10; I-S MODELS; MORTALITY; DYNAMICS; HISTORY; PREDATORS; STABILITY; HARVEST; DISEASE; VIRUS; CHAOS;
D O I
10.1007/s00285-024-02074-z
中图分类号
Q [生物科学];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
One-dimensional discrete-time population models, such as those that involve Logistic or Ricker growth, can exhibit periodic and chaotic dynamics. Expanding the system by one dimension to incorporate epidemiological interactions causes an interesting complexity of new behaviors. Here, we examine a discrete-time two-dimensional susceptible-infectious (SI) model with Ricker growth and show that the introduction of infection can not only produce a distinctly different bifurcation structure than that of the underlying disease-free system but also lead to counter-intuitive increases in population size. We use numerical bifurcation analysis to determine the influence of infection on the location and types of bifurcations. In addition, we examine the appearance and extent of a phenomenon known as the 'hydra effect,' i.e., increases in total population size when factors, such as mortality, that act negatively on a population, are increased. Previous work, primarily focused on dynamics at fixed points, showed that the introduction of infection that reduces fecundity to the SI model can lead to a so-called 'infection-induced hydra effect.' Our work shows that even in such a simple two-dimensional SI model, the introduction of infection that alters fecundity or mortality can produce dynamics can lead to the appearance of a hydra effect, particularly when the disease-free population is at a cycle.
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页数:35
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