Ecological niche modelling of Tecomella undulata (Sm.) Seem: an endangered (A2a) tree species from arid and semi-arid environment imparts multiple ecosystem services

The objective of this study was to utilize niche modelling techniques and predictors, including bioclimatic, soil, habitat heterogeneity indices, and land-use land cover (LULC), to ascertain the present and potential distribution of Tecomella undulata in India. The bio-climatic variables of 2050 and 2070 timeframes were employed to forecast future occurrences. The study also examined the level of indigeneity of T. undulata and analysed the factors that impact its fundamental and realized niche. The Maxent model utilized for forecasting the distribution of T. undulata demonstrated a high level of precision, incorporating both bioclimatic and non-bioclimatic variables. The study highlights the significance of mean and maximum temperatures during the warmest quarter and month, as well as the wettest months and years’ worth of precipitation. In addition, threshold values for these predictors were calculated. In contrast to the limiting effects of climatic factors, the species in question was found to exhibit a greater degree of facilitation in response to soil conditions (including rooting conditions, nutrient availability, and salt excess), habitat heterogeneity indices (such as range, maximum, and coefficient of variance of diversity), and lLULC predictors (including urban areas, residential and infrastructure development, forested regions, and sparsely vegetated areas). As a result, this species was able to expand its range across a wider expanse of India. The Churu and Jhunjhunu districts and a transact region including Pali, Jalor, Jodhpur, Sanchor, and Barmer have been identified as the best possible locations for its occurrences. Shrinkage would begin around 2050 in all of these areas. By 2070, the Churu and Jhunjhunu regions had become significantly more fragmented, while the Jodhpur region and the surrounding areas of Barmer, Sanchor, Jalor, and Vav had grown. Specific coordinates were also identified pertains to zone of extinction, zone of re-occurrence and zone of maximum occurrence. The aforementioned discoveries enable us to ascertain the extent of land that is conducive to the growth of T. undulata across diverse ecological niches, as well as the underlying factors and critical points that impact its dispersion dynamics both presently and prospectively. This shall aid us in determining the necessity of extensive captive cultivation for the preservation of the species and its consequential ecological advantages.