Prediction model for Cd accumulation of rice (Oryza sativa L.) based on extractable Cd in soils and prediction for high Cd-risk regions of southern Zhejiang Province, China

Soil environmental quality in China for agricultural land always considers the effect of total cadmium (Cd) in soil, ignoring the bioavailability of soil Cd. The 139 paired rice (Oryza sativa L.) and soil samples were collected from the Cd-contaminated paddy fields of southern Zhejiang Province, China. The objectives of this study were to establish accurate prediction models for Cd accumulation in brown rice based on bioavailable Cd and physiochemical properties of soils and to evaluate the safety of rice production in Cd-contaminated paddy. The bioavailable Cd in soils was extracted and evaluated by using CaCl2, HNO3, diethylenetriamine pentaacetic acid (DTPA), diffusive gradients in thin-films technique (DGT), and sequential extraction method proposed by the European Community Bureau of Reference; 100 pairs of data were used as training sets, and the remaining 39 sets were used as validation sets. Stepwise multiple linear regression analysis and random forest analysis showed that total Cd in soil could roughly indicate the content of Cd in rice, while extractable Cd could better explain the accumulation of Cd in rice grain and DTPA and DGT extractive technologies are the most evaluative. The validation sets also showed that the prediction model has a good fit. Based on the prediction model for Cd in brown rice based on soil pH and DGT extractive Cd, the Monte Carlo simulation showed that 74.32% and 89.35% of the estimated brown rice hazard quotient (HQ) of the daily Cd intake of adults and children in safe utilization paddy sites could exceed the safe level of 1, respectively. Additionally, the threshold values for extractable Cd by DGT or DTPA for rice safe production were 3.4 μg/kg or 0.13 mg/kg when the pH in soils was below 5.5. The results further proved the threshold concentration of extractable Cd for predicting high-risk soils of Cd contamination in brown rice.